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MTBS3D RT @GetImmersed: We’re moving to Silicon Valley! @IfcSummit November 5 & 6, 2019 at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, CA. Call…
MTBS3D Julien Le Corre, Lead Developer at @InnerspaceVR , talked about their latest #VR escape room title The Corsair's Cu… https://t.co/uuOT6SG0NA
MTBS3D As fun as Arizona Sunshine is in traditional #VR, @Vertigo_Games took it up a notch by transforming it into a locat… https://t.co/YkGpv2wLMM
MTBS3D .@OfficialGDC would not be complete without visiting SVVR's annual #VR Mixer! In today's interview, we catch up wi… https://t.co/hibivrbYdq
MTBS3D Spencer Jackson, Software Engineer at @NordicTrack, talks about their latest iFit #VR Bike paired with an #HTCVivehttps://t.co/5b2uD9Hoa9
MTBS3D William Provancher is the CEO of @TacticalHaptics. He demonstrated their latest haptics controllers for us in this… https://t.co/Ir1Cog8bRI
MTBS3D Gaspar Ferreiro is the CEO of Project Ghost Studios. In this interview, he talks about their new Project Ghost dem… https://t.co/T2xz1VdtGI
MTBS3D .@EpicGames had loads of news to share at @OfficialGDC. Marc Petit is the General Manager of #Epic's @UnrealEnginehttps://t.co/CnqpGAB2f4
MTBS3D Chris Hook, Graphics & Visual Technologies Marketing Chief for @intel spoke to us during @OfficialGDC. We talked ab… https://t.co/ji6AKJpfwM
MTBS3D We interviewed @networknextinc at #GDC2019. They are in the business of ensuring the best connectivity and lowest l… https://t.co/87b06uMAm7
MTBS3D .@reality_clash is a developing #AugmentedReality combat game. We got to interview Tony Pearce, the CCO and Co-Fou… https://t.co/24P5kLz0Ef
MTBS3D Robots explode at #GDC2019 with @FuturLab. They have a new title for #PSVR called Mini Mech Mayhem. #GDC19https://t.co/JiIuJgGZ64
MTBS3D .@zerolatencyVR has a number of #VR out-of-home entertainment centers around the world, and we got to catch up with… https://t.co/NZJBVyRUWz
MTBS3D RT @GetImmersed: Dr. Ofer Shai is the Director of Omnia AI at @DeloitteCanada. He talked about the misconceptions about #ArtificialIntellig
MTBS3D RT @GetImmersed: The use of #futurecomputing in #healthcare was one of the prominent tracks at #Immersed2018, and we got to see some really…
MTBS3D RT @GetImmersed: Ricardo Wagner, Director of Product Marketing for #Office365 at @microsoftcanada, talked about their efforts to make moder…

The Secret is OUT: Realistic VR Sales Predictions

Seen enough.

This all started when I was invited for an analyst call and the service wanted my opinions on VR and immersive tech and where things would ultimately go. There have been all kinds of promoted studies predicting that VR would sell in the millions of units as early as a year from now, and the industry would quickly grow to be valued in the tens of billions of dollars by 2020. In all cases, none of the studies demonstrated measurable fundamentals; at least none that I could see. With so much on the line for so many people, I knew I had to do better.

It's with thanks to Jon Peddie Research that I got my hands on the actual GPU sales for 2015, and from this as well as other criteria, I've been able to create a market sales analysis that I think is far more accurate and more telling than any other analysis currently promoted in the market. I've had it reviewed by several trusted individuals (including Dr. Jon Peddie), and while it's not an exact science, it has been holding up. At a minimum, analysts better than I will have something to build from.  What's key is I think I've identified some challenges the industry can overcome, but we have to work together.


I know - I had a little too much fun with the Soylent Green references. :-) It's still safe to eat your breakfast cereal! It's just that we finally have core data to make a pretty solid sales prediction and it's far different from anything that we have seen publicized to date. If the numbers hold up, and I trust my sources, this means the industry will need to work together for the market to last long term. This isn't an opinion; it's fact.  I just hope I don't end up like poor William Simonson (you have to watch the above trailer to get it)!

Anyways, read on and see what you think. This has also been published in JPR's TechWatch journal.