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 First 5-6K orders 
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One Eyed Hopeful

Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 4:37 pm
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Does anyone know if there is a way to find out if your kickstarter backing was in the first 5-6K or not? I get the feeling that I'll just miss out, but it would be good to know for sure.
Thanks.


Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:37 am
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Two Eyed Hopeful

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(Edit: This is incorrect) Considering there's only 7.5K being made, and they sold lots via their website after the Kickstarter closed, I imagine all of those who backed the Kickstater will be within the first 5-6K.


Last edited by Mart on Sat Dec 01, 2012 5:18 am, edited 2 times in total.



Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:01 am
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Cross Eyed!

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Mart wrote:
Considering there's only 7.5K being made, and they sold lots via their website after the Kickstarter closed, I imagine all of those who backed the Kickstater will be within the first 5-6K.

I didn't double check my math, but about 7457 were awarded via Kickstarter.


Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:06 am
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Two Eyed Hopeful

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Oh, my bad. I wonder why Oculus didn't include the website orders in the total count?


Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:32 am
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One Eyed Hopeful
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Mart wrote:
Oh, my bad. I wonder why Oculus didn't include the website orders in the total count?

The website order form is still available. So they are probably still getting pre-orders. That makes it impossible to get a correct total. Also, this update is a Kickstarter update. It seems like they are focusing exclusively on fulfilling the Kickstarter obligations for posts like this.


Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:01 pm
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One Eyed Hopeful

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jf031 wrote:
Mart wrote:
Considering there's only 7.5K being made, and they sold lots via their website after the Kickstarter closed, I imagine all of those who backed the Kickstater will be within the first 5-6K.

I didn't double check my math, but about 7457 were awarded via Kickstarter.


Exactly, and given that I was quite late to pledge via kickstarter it's likely that I won't be in the first 5-6k run that gets sent out before the Chinese New Year. I'm ok with that, but it would be nice to be able to find out somehow, because I can't stop thinking "maybe I will get it in March" which I realise is stupid of me :P


Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:12 pm
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Why don't we try to find out, working with the bottom chart at this page.

Lets do the worst case scenario first, which means assuming all large pledges were done the first day and all the small pledges the last day(s).

  • Number of >1 x Rift backers: 216 + 40 + 20 + 14 = 300
  • Number of total Rifts in those pledges: 216x2 + 40x3 + 20x5 + 14x10 = 792
  • Number of Rifts Aug 1st: 2757 - 300 + 792 = 3249
  • Aug 2nd: 3249 + 1413 = 4662
  • Aug 3rd: 4662 + 554 = 5216
  • Aug 4th: 5216 + 362 = 5578
  • Aug 5th: 5578 + 275 = 5853
  • Aug 6th: 5853 + 299 = 6152

This is a sort of middle ground, where only 1 x Rift pledges are present for the first 10 days.

  • Number of Rifts Aug 1st: 2757
  • Aug 2nd: 2757 + 1413 = 4170
  • Aug 3rd: 4170 + 554 = 4724
  • Aug 4th: 4724 + 362 = 5068
  • Aug 5th: 5068 + 275 = 5361
  • Aug 6th: 5361 + 299 = 5660
  • Aug 7th: 5660 + 266 = 5926
  • Aug 8th: 5926 + 230 = 6156

And this is the absolute best case scenario, with all the no-rift pledges done the first day and all the large pledges done the last day(s).

  • Number of <1 x Rift backers: 1009 + 209 + 434 + 106 = 1758
  • Number of Rifts Aug 1st: 2757 - 1758 = 999
  • Aug 2nd: 999 + 1413 = 2412
  • Aug 3rd: 2412 + 554 = 2966
  • Aug 4th: 2966 + 362 = 3328
  • Aug 5th: 3328 + 275 = 3603
  • Aug 6th: 3603 + 299 = 3902
  • Aug 7th: 3902 + 266 = 4168
  • Aug 8th: 4168 + 230 = 4398
  • Aug 9th: 4398 + 172 = 4570
  • Aug 10th: 4570 + 120 = 4690
  • Aug 11th: 4690 + 105 = 4795
  • Aug 12th: 4795 + 72 = 4867
  • Aug 13th: 4867 + 93 = 4960
  • Aug 14th: 4960 + 81 = 5041
  • Aug 15th: 5041 + 95 = 5136
  • Aug 16th: 5136 + 66 = 5202
  • Aug 17th: 5202 + 132 = 5334
  • Aug 18th: 5334 + 73 = 5407
  • Aug 19th: 5407 + 62 = 5469
  • Aug 20th: 5469 + 63 = 5532
  • Aug 21st: 5532 + 79 = 5611
  • Aug 22nd: 5611 + 97 = 5708
  • Aug 23rd: 5708 + 103 = 5811
  • Aug 24th: 5811 + 89 = 5900
  • Aug 25th: 5900 + 67 = 5967
  • Aug 26th: 5967 + 76 = 6043

Summarized...
Code:
 
       [  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31  1 ]
WORST  [ OK OK  o  o  o  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  - ]
MIDDLE [ OK OK OK  o  o  o  o  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  - ]
BEST   [ OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK  o  o  o  o  o  o  o  o  o  o  o  o  -  -  -  -  -  -  - ]

Which probably means...

  • Aug 1st - 2nd : ABSOLUTELY SAFE
  • Aug 3rd : PROBABLY SAFE
  • Aug 4th - 5th : POSSIBLY SAFE
  • Aug 6th - 7th : MAYBE
  • Aug 8th - Aug 13th : SMALL CHANCE
  • Aug 14th - Aug 25th : ALMOST NO CHANCE
  • Aug 26th - Sep 1st : SADFACE D:

Then check your backer history at kickstarter and check which date you backed, see if you are lucky or not :P

Myself I backed the 8th, so probably no dime, aaaaw shucks.

Edit: Ehwoops, forgot about all the pledges not rewarding a Rift, adjusted scenarios, adding one, adding summary and revised date regions, hahaha. Overkill.


Last edited by BOLL on Sat Dec 01, 2012 6:34 am, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Nov 30, 2012 5:49 pm
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Cross Eyed!

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Hmm, I pledged for one dev kit on August 1st but changed my pledge to get a second one toward the end of the kickstarter. Hope I get the first one earlier...


Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:54 pm
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Cross Eyed!

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i pledged...31.august
:(


Sat Dec 01, 2012 4:22 am
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maboo63 wrote:
i pledged...31.august
:(

Me too :D and consider I'm international so I'll see my rift in May/June YEAH!


Sat Dec 01, 2012 4:35 am
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Owen wrote:
Hmm, I pledged for one dev kit on August 1st but changed my pledge to get a second one toward the end of the kickstarter. Hope I get the first one earlier...


Same here. First pledge on August 1st and a change to get another one later. Let's hope this wasn't a mistake. Would be a really sad turn of events, if something that was meant to make absolutely sure I get a working device as soon as possible would not only cost me twice the intended price but also lead to the exact opposite, another three month delay.


Sat Dec 01, 2012 5:14 am
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One Eyed Hopeful

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crespo80 wrote:
maboo63 wrote:
i pledged...31.august
:(

Me too :D and consider I'm international so I'll see my rift in May/June YEAH!

I pledged on the 27th and I'm in the UK, so I'll get mine around then too. At least I know now :P


Sat Dec 01, 2012 5:33 am
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Adjusted my post, haha. I guess some real probability calculations could be done here :P but meh, done for now. For further work I'd beg Oculus for the actual data instead, but that is probably taking it too far ;)


Sat Dec 01, 2012 6:36 am
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One Eyed Hopeful

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From Kicktraq:
Image
Image


Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:47 pm
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I pledged right at the end of the campaign, so I have no expectations of an early kit.


Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:04 pm
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Two Eyed Hopeful

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I pledged immediately after I saw John Carmack's tweet on Aug 1st and I was so excited that I literally had to force myself to at least watch the video before pledging my $330. ;)

But any potential "early backer advantage" will probably be diminished by the additional time it takes for international shipping.


Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:04 pm
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Two Eyed Hopeful

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I dunno I think you can be pretty happy. Being an early backer means you get in the initial lot before the chinese new year holiday. So if shipping takes less then 4 weeks you're still winning :)


Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:38 pm
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DaEmpty wrote:
From Kicktraq:
Image
Image


I know my fate now.

:(


Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:45 pm
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Spare a thought for those of us who pre-ordered from oculusvr.com....in February...


Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:48 pm
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Two Eyed Hopeful

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yautjacetanu wrote:
I dunno I think you can be pretty happy. Being an early backer means you get in the initial lot before the chinese new year holiday. So if shipping takes less then 4 weeks you're still winning :)

Yes, and I'm very happy about it. My guess is 1-2 weeks of additional shipping time compared to US backers. I just hope that it doesn't get held up in customs for too long.

Diorama wrote:
Spare a thought for those of us who pre-ordered from oculusvr.com....in February...

My sympathies, but keep in mind that Kickstarter backers are waiting for more than 6 months already (including an unplanned 3 month delay, even without the new year's holiday).
I hope that you don't have to wait that long to receive your unit. ;)


Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:04 pm
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Two Eyed Hopeful

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I thought I pledged late in the campaign, because that's what I usually do, but to my happy surprise I seem to have pledged on day one.

Thank you past self!


Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:07 pm
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zino wrote:
I thought I pledged late in the campaign, because that's what I usually do, but to my happy surprise I seem to have pledged on day one.

Thank you past self!


Ha, me too! Was so surprised to see August 1! And I just realized I'm getting a T-shirt and poster!


Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:22 pm
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One Eyed Hopeful

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August 1, yay! :)

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Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:01 pm
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Two Eyed Hopeful

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I pledged on August 2 but my worst nightmare is still that it will get lost in international shipping :S


Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:56 am
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I might not be making as educated of a guess as other people here, but I think most people who ordered, even up until now, will probably all get their Dev Kits before the end of May. The kind of numbers we're talking about, aren't really that big of a deal to make/fill at this point.

Of course after March, after the first people start receiving their Rifts, and posting videos and other stuff about it, if Oculus doesn't close the pre-order page by then, they're gonna get SWAMPED with new orders. I hope they're prepared to do something about that.

Obviously the kits will go out in the same order that the orders were placed. So I wouldn't worry too much, I ordered around Jan 10th, and I'm fine with whenever it gets here, within reason of course.
People will start receiving them in mid-March, the rest will follow in April, and even in the worst case scenario, I think even late orders placed in Feb+ should still get theirs before the end of May.

Personally, and maybe optimistically, I'm really hoping mine comes at the end of April, as my birthday is the 29th. It'd be the greatest Birthday gift ever! ..but of course any time around then is still wonderful. hehe


Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:13 pm
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My nearest calculations put the initial shipment as a container load, non stacked. (40 ft)

5000 units does not seem like much until you are confronted with the daunting task of finding a way to walk through the resulting mess that is occupying the entire loading dock area and associated space.

At about 150-180 units a skid, that's bordering on +30 skids of dev kits, in the initial shipment. The boxes will be slightly rectangular, so they interlock for skidding. "Never design a square/cube box", it's on page 1, chapter one, of 'Full scale manufacturing 101'.

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Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:41 pm
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KBK wrote:
The boxes will be slightly rectangular, so they interlock for skidding. "Never design a square/cube box", it's on page 1, chapter one, of 'Full scale manufacturing 101'.
That is very interesting and logical :o you seem to know so much about many things Mr KBK, you must be a fascinating person! Though again, you scare me at times ;)


Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:10 am
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BOLL wrote:
That is very interesting and logical :o you seem to know so much about many things Mr KBK, you must be a fascinating person! Though again, you scare me at times ;)
I concur. Perhaps you can blame the scary posts on Mr. Doob!

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Thu Feb 14, 2013 6:31 am
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KBK wrote:
... At about 150-180 units a skid, that's bordering on +30 skids of dev kits, in the initial shipment. The boxes will be slightly rectangular, so they interlock for skidding. "Never design a square/cube box", it's on page 1, chapter one, of 'Full scale manufacturing 101'.
@KBK: I cannot find a publication titled 'Full scale manufacturing 101'. Is that real, or did you just make that up? Once more, it seems necessary to take your bold unsubstantiated claims "to task" (as you said). Although your posts SOUND smart, they tend to lack references or other supporting evidence. [And FYI, I keep my 3D glasses scrupulously clean.]

In my professional experience in the palletizing industry, rectangular packages are not required, nor are alternating interlocking layers, if you use a separation "leaf" layer between them. When I programmed industrial robots to stack packages onto pallets back in the early 90's, we just used a pre-cut piece of cardboard between layers. Our robots had large suction-cup array end-effectors to pick and place stuff while palletizing. Of course, we stretch-wrapped the pallets after stacking (which is also common practice). Some companies use the older method of outer (optional) protective layers and strapping bands instead of stretch wrapping, depending on the application.

And although alternating stacks are common, they are by no means required, and even heavy rectangular packages are not necessarily interlocked as shown in this automotive battery pallet stacking diagram (which substitutes honeycomb leaf layers above the batteries):

Image

Notice that although the batteries are rectangular, they are not stacked in interlocking layers as suggested by KBK.

However, as I mentioned earlier, it is also common to use alternating stacking patterns, but often more than two patterns are used (top and bottom layers different from internal layers). As with many things, Real Life tends to be more complciated than simple theories or rules.

And regarding cubic packaging being forbidden as you suggest, there are entire companies dedicated to cubic packaging:
http://www.smartcubepackaging.com/compo ... d-brochure

If you have information to support your claims, or to deny my claims, please supply it. A link to your 'Full scale manufacturing 101' document would be appreciated as well (if it actually exists).

Thanks.

EDIT: It takes me a lot of edits to get all the typos out of my posts. My typing accuracy has degraded in recent years.
:(

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Last edited by geekmaster on Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:38 am, edited 9 times in total.



Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:15 am
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Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:23 am
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Diorama wrote:
Cute! I plan to use that mrdictionary "objection" service in the future! I like the "objection" guy wearing the colorful "Rift":
http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=6482565

That makes a nice addition to this one:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Full+scale+manufacturing+101

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Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:42 am
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Guys, Why do so many assumptions and theory?

Oculus said first developper kits will be delivered in Marsh (logically to early contributors), then deliveries spread over the month of April. And Pre-order page from the official site STILL prédicts deliveries for NEW buyers in April (+ extra time for international shipping).

Assuming that Oculus team keeps track of his pre-order page, I see no reason to worry.


Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:49 am
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Diorama wrote:


It may be that Geekmaster is suffering under the load of an overt linearity issue. And that in this blinkered scenario, I may emerge as his new whipping boy. Please sir, gain a more solid hold of yourself.

One looks at the dimensions of the object -and any ancillary components that need be packed with it... then consider packaging requirements, and box size, as a generality emerges.

International shipping skids for standardized container sizes, are built of a certain set of dimensions.

This is then applied to the considered boxing sizes for the boxed product. There are normalizations of height 'ranges' for rows of stacking. Lower height being better, for hopefully some obvious reasons,and some that apply strictly to shipping issues.

What emerges is a scenario that says that this is approximately the number of skids required for stable shipment of said goods, and this is the displacement cost scenario. Ie, a 20x10 container or a 40x10 container. The smaller works as well, but with a shelving situation in use. Cross ocean shipping is mostly a displacement expense, not a weight expense, whereas air shipping is a combination of both, but oriented more on weight.

So I made an estimate, based on experience, and gave people a quite useless bit of information to chew on, as they spin in place, waiting for their dev kits.

Do I have to break down humor for him as well?

Why don't we just dispel with the games and bring it to a point? That this appears to be a form of harassment, as an attempt to make my being here - as uncomfortable as possible? You got grief? Keep it off the board, send it in a PM.

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Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:23 am
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it is also important to understand, that as the Oculus rift and Oculus as a company..all move forward and begin to really emerge into the market..that more..and more..and more people are going to be appearing on this board.

Now, this board can grow, or shun. two options. One is geared more toward growing into the situation that is emerging, the other - is more egocentric manifestations of the mentality behind tribal religions.

The owners of the board, the people who created it and run it, will have to decide which side of that equation they wish to lie on, or how they may want to blend the various factors.

That the growth can be turned away and thus importance of involvement, of this forum, in the expanding situation, will decrease proportionally, or an umbrella can emerge, that is effective, overall, in all potential connections. Differing attempts at combinations of focus and range.

Also, that my being on this board is obviously possible to be seen as almost a 'spamming' due to the number of posts in such a short time. this is my normal pace of posting, and yes, I failed to adjust my character (as a form of presentation and blending) and that posting pace... with how this board currently works and functions.

That this sort of situation is going to be encountered often in the future, with regard to this board. It's combination of my being a bit different, and your unyielding character. And vice-versa. That is this particular moment. there will be more, as many more people arrive.

So, the board has to make a choice, to expand or contract. Influence in the area of the topics of interest... will vary with any given approach. Of course, this will happen as a form of flow, not in an instant.

I also see a potential for a personal aspect, as when I first arrived here, I made a comment on Fresnels. What I failed to do, my bad, was I did not look closely enough at what you where originally saying, or did not research your prior posted bits on what you where doing. I made the comment, you responded... and I left it alone. I'm still interested in the Fresnels, and I will get around to playing with them, when a Dev kit arrives. Until then, I was staying away from it.

Is that a little more clear?

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Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:02 pm
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:?


Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:21 pm
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jaybug wrote:
:?


Yes, you should be confused -to some degree, as this sort of sideways push should not be.

I made an estimate on the number of skids so people would have some basic but incredibly unimportant data to chew on. I did it in a mildly humorous 'straight man' fashion.

Geekmaster took me to task for it.

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KBK wrote:
Diorama wrote:
It may be that Geekmaster is suffering under the load of an overt linearity issue. And that in this blinkered scenario, I may emerge as his new whipping boy. Please sir, gain a more solid hold of yourself. ... So I made an estimate, based on experience, and gave people a quite useless bit of information to chew on, as they spin in place, waiting for their dev kits.

Do I have to break down humor for him as well?

Why don't we just dispel with the games and bring it to a point? That this appears to be a form of harassment, as an attempt to make my being here - as uncomfortable as possible? You got grief? Keep it off the board, send it in a PM.
Though your prosaic riddles be filled with a clever twist of words, their ethereal quality lacks substance and form, as if missing form of reference, link, or URL. Having the quality of voiding bold claims does not harassment make.
KBK wrote:
Now, this board can grow, or shun. two options. One is geared more toward growing into the situation that is emerging, the other - is more egocentric manifestations of the mentality behind tribal religions.

The owners of the board, the people who created it and run it, will have to decide which side of that equation they wish to lie on, or how they may want to blend the various factors. ... Also, that my being on this board is obviously possible to be seen as almost a 'spamming' due to the number of posts in such a short time. this is my normal pace of posting, and yes, I failed to adjust my character (as a form of presentation and blending) and that posting pace... with how this board currently works and functions. ... That this sort of situation is going to be encountered often in the future, with regard to this board. It's combination of my being a bit different, and your unyielding character. And vice-versa. That is this particular moment. there will be more, as many more people arrive. ... Is that a little more clear?
You confuse unyielding with strength. True strength requires even the mighty oak must yield, bending to the will of the strong gale, or suffer loss of life or limb. Two strong-willed creatures need NOT come to blows of might or will. I have learned to get along and indeed to grow in communal spirit with others of strong will on other forums, but have you?

What is of utmost import in our interchange, is the true saying that bold claims require bold evidence. I provide links and references, but you provide evasive replies and admission of posting here while under the influence of intoxicating smoking substances.
KBK wrote:
jaybug wrote:
:?
Yes, you should be confused -to some degree, as this sort of sideways push should not be.

I made an estimate on the number of skids so people would have some basic but incredibly unimportant data to chew on. I did it in a mildly humorous 'straight man' fashion.

Geekmaster took me to task for it.

I am not alone in being confused by your posts, which beguile with clever words and bold claims, but lack form, substance, references, and other valid forms of bold (or even circumstantial) evidence. Complete clarity can be found in a lack of substance to cloud the view. Nothing is more clear than the void. Real Life is rarely to be trusted when it presents itself with complete clarity, requiring a consideration of alternate points of view before passing judgement.

I have requested evidence for your bold claims in other threads, and I still await their reply in a form that contains such evidence, rather than claims of "taking to task" now elevated to "harassment". I admit to neither. I do admit to recommending that you provide evidence and references (especially when you speak in absolutes and provide apparently false reference), most recently in reference to your claim that cubic packages are "forbidden by your book" when filling shipping pallets. I also recommend that you post only while lucid and not intoxicated, which can alter your perception of time (making it non-linear, perhaps?)...

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Last edited by geekmaster on Thu Feb 14, 2013 4:05 pm, edited 8 times in total.



Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:34 pm
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Location: Brighton, UK (Sometimes London)
Come on guys, play nice. There is plenty of space on MTBS for both of you.


Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:45 pm
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Petrif-Eyed
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Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:47 pm
Posts: 2652
Diorama wrote:
Come on guys, play nice. There is plenty of space on MTBS for both of you.
Agreed. How then should I request REAL facts for KBK's bold but unreferenced claims (especially the ones stated in ABSOLUTES)? I began asking politely in other threads, but with evasive replies from KBK my frustration grows, which shows as a lack of patience and increasing strength of wording in my requests for references, and especially clarification of claims that I find in dispute based on my own personal experience in the industry. Does the provision of own contrary evidence really cause angst deserving such retaliatory claims?

@KBK: Please provide answers to the many questions I have posed to you in various threads, instead of being evasive and interpreting my requests for proof as "lack of a sense of humor", or "harassment". I am NOT trying to chase you away. I merely seek clarification and proof for your bold statements (and mis-statements). I do NOT dispute all of your claims, and I agree that you provide valuable information and "food for thought". Just answer my valid questions when I ask them, without claiming them to be "harassment". That is all I ask. If you must retaliate, do so with facts, references, and evidence, and not just personal attitude.

@all: Please excuse my waxing prosaic in recent replies to KBK -- I was just trying to follow the "eloquent" form set by KBK in many of his posts, while also trying to remain true to the rules of English grammar.

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“The creative person wants to be a know-it-all. He wants to know about all kinds of things: ancient history, nineteenth century mathematics, current manufacturing techniques, flower arranging, and hog futures. Because he never knows when these ideas might come together to form a new idea. It may happen six minutes later or six years down the road. But he has faith that it will happen.” ―Carl Ally


Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:49 pm
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Binocular Vision CONFIRMED!
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Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:55 pm
Posts: 302
Quote:
Come on guys, play nice. There is plenty of space on MTBS for both of you.


I'm not sure there's space for either of them. :P

geekmaster wrote:
all: Please excuse my waxing prosaic in recent replies to KBK -- I was just trying to follow the "eloquent" form set by KBK in many of his posts, while also trying to remain true to the rules of English grammar.


Oh god, please don't do that again. It's unbearable enough when he does it.


Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:46 pm
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