Realistic Expectations Guys

[martinP]

This guy... I like this guy.

Why? Don't get me wrong, I like the guy too, and I like his motives, but you're the ones who set the expectations in the first place.

Why are you (Oculus) delegating the task of letting us know what's going on, to someone who doesn't know what's going on?

Hey 2EyeGuy

I feel your frustration mate but I feel obliged to make a couple of points clear.

I have NOTHING to do with Oculus.

Nothing was delegated to me.

My post was motivated only because people are starting to confuse speculation for facts.

Like it or not the "Magic 5000" was calculated by someone on the forums. Its not an official announcement.

People are worried by performance issues that at the moment that simply do not exist.

And as for DOOM, testing a tracker is not the same as announcing a game working with it - even if it was announced that the game worked with different hardware originally.

A realistic take on the situation is that some Rifts were made before the Chinese New Year, that the performance hit using the untested and unoptimised drivers does not warrant massive upgrades if you have a semi decent rig and that John Carmack is a good bloke and can be relied on.

That ultimately is all we know.

Here's looking forward to being one of the lucky 10000 odd that will own a Rift at some point in near the future.

So much better than the millions who won't.

UB

"Like it or not the "Magic 5000" was calculated by someone on the forums. Its not an official announcement."

Actually not, it was calculated by someone at Oculus and put here:
http://www.oculusvr.com/wp-content/uplo ... rt_800.png
But you could be right, that person is probably also visiting this forum.
There was no update on that matter since then so we can take that value as up to date.

Regarding the amount of speculation on this forum. I guess that 80% of "speculating" posts here could be avoided if Oculus release more information on the shipping. But they are saving it for some BIG moment ... which is their politics and they can do what ever they want

[Marulu]

That the performance hit using the untested and unoptimised drivers does not warrant massive upgrades

I am fairly certain that the Perception driver has been tested on the actual machine, because the creator, Cyberreality works at Oculus VR.

[Moriarty]

But when the hype reaches a point where a majority of people starts expecting a revolution, or something that changes gaming forever, things are getting dangerous. That at least is my opinion.

The Rift will be a great product, the most interesting in gaming for quite some time. But please don't raise expectations so high that people get disappointed after trying it. While this might look easy and pretty tempting right now, in the long run it won't pay off.

My insigificant 2ct.

Yes, I'm a bit worried about this too, especially since the Kickstarter is not just developers or even VR geeks but also average gamers. The delay has increased the hype even more (if that's even possible) and it seems that some people expect The Matrix to arrive on their doorstep within a few days. If there will be any disappointment it will not be caused by the performance of the Rift but by the unrealistic expectations. It's not really Oculus' fault either, the demos are too good . Journalists are amazed and can't contain their excitement. Just look at that guy from Tested, he sounded like a hype machine firing off one-liners that hit every triggerpoint a gamer has.If he would have continued for five more minutes some people would have stormed the Oculus HQ to get a Rift :

It was the highlight of my SXSW experience.

The second you put it on you are impressed.

It's funny, the guy who was doing the demo would give a 15 minute tour, I was thinking just give people the goggles, it's all you need to do !

It was instantaneous, within one second of putting it on you go : Oh s**** this is what I have wanted all my life !

The stereoscopic 3d effect is phenomenal, actually 3D works much better in there.

They say there is still some latency but you don't notice it. When you look left you look left, there is no lag at all it happens instantaneously.

It genuinely feels like being in another world.

You are completely and utterly immersed, surrounded by this world.

It's the Holodeck, Ready Player One...whatever analogy you want to use !

It was like a baptism, you put his thing on and after five minutes you go : can I still invest in this ?

This thing could take over the world, I mean it's crazy !

I was instantly texting friends of mine saying : you got to come over and see this thing.

It was just as much fun to watch people try it, you see them putting the goggles on and literally you see their mouth open when they go : Oh S*** the second they put it on !They have never experienced anything like it.

There are medieval soldiers in armour walking around, you walk up to them and the 3d effect is really amazing you feel like they are right there in your face.

One guy walked "through me" and I did the instinctive thing of wanting to step out of his way, your brain is tricked into thinking that something is really there !

You honestly felt like Superman !

It was unbelievable.

I would buy the dev kit just to have it as a "party piece" at my house, people would come over and walk around in this demo.

Cliff said to me : be aware when you put this thing on, once you put this on, playing games on a regular panel is going to seem stupid to you after this.

He was right, I put it on and I was absolutely blown away by it, later on I walked around the gaming expo and saw a driving game on one of those Eyefinity 6 monitors and I was like : that is stupid why would you waste your time with this, that is not even close to what I just experienced !

They are potentially sitting on a multi-billion dollar invention here.

This thing could really be the next big thing !

If I was they head of Microsoft or Sony and I tried this is I would say : how big a check do I need to write ?

I understood the promise of it (amazing/fantastic/like nothing you've ever experienced) but when you put it on you go like : Oh Wow !!! You can't imagine what it feels like.

We understand what Virtual Reality is supposed to be like,this thing matches our expectation and it's actually better !

The actual real world implementation exceeds what your brain thinks it's going to be like.

When you put this thing on and you are looking around you really feel like you are in another world, it's unbelievable !

...

[geekmaster]

... Regarding the amount of speculation on this forum. I guess that 80% of "speculating" posts here could be avoided if Oculus release more information on the shipping. But they are saving it for some BIG moment ... which is their politics and they can do what ever they want

EXACTLY! Oculus needs to allow the BIG information to flow through carefully navigated information channels, when the time is right. All the hype is coming from the USERS, not from Oculus staff (who actually try to moderate it somewhat in the demo videos).

[Unclebob]

"Like it or not the "Magic 5000" was calculated by someone on the forums. Its not an official announcement."

Actually not, it was calculated by someone at Oculus and put here:
http://www.oculusvr.com/wp-content/uplo ... rt_800.png
But you could be right, that person is probably also visiting this forum.
There was no update on that matter since then so we can take that value as up to date.

Regarding the amount of speculation on this forum. I guess that 80% of "speculating" posts here could be avoided if Oculus release more information on the shipping. But they are saving it for some BIG moment ... which is their politics and they can do what ever they want

True that chart was posted by Oculus.

However that was on November 28th. People here, have taken that the factory can produce 500 a day. They have multiplied it by 12 and subtracted 1000. This is where the "Magic 5000" comes from.

There is NO 5000 have been produced statement from Oculus.

None.

We can't just take a number that someone has made up and take it a value.

This is the problem. Speculation is now being argued as FACT.

Whether the factory:
hit all those dates
the factory managed to produce before the Chinese New Year
if they did what numbers did they produced per day
what the failure rate was
how many were actually sent
how many have arrived

Is all speculation.

And I agree that given the dates people feel that Oculus should release an update. But that is up to Oculus, not us.

So patience. I'd still rather be one of 10000+ with a Rift than one of the rest without.

UB

[GeraldT]

Thanks DrZimmermann, I was planning on getting the best quotes, you saved me the trouble! Reading it is like joyous torture

@geekmaster... why do you think they don't release it? They love tons of people speculating. Shows them and possible investors how people are waiting for the product.

What would you rather show a developer or possible partner you want to convince? A thread were people are whining because production is not as fast as they wish, or a thread where people go to any length to speculate when they might get lucky?

[Unclebob]

That the performance hit using the untested and unoptimised drivers does not warrant massive upgrades

I am fairly certain that the Perception driver has been tested on the actual machine, because the creator, Cyberreality works at Oculus VR.

So am I - he has mentioned it somewhere in http://www.mtbs3d.com/phpbb/viewforum.php?f=141

Cyberreality has also left the drivers in the public domain so if anyone wants to pick up the project I am sure he would be ok with it.

Pretty sure he mentioned in a post he was pleased with the result but the distortion was not completely Rift like as at the time he did not have a displacement map that mirrored the Rifts optics.

UB

[Tirregius]

I think they've told us everything we need to know.

1) The point of the dev kits is to get the Rift into our hands as soon as possisible. Its safe to assume they have our best intrests in mind, seeing as they are putting this in our hands so they can effectively move forward.

2) It is going to be quite, seriously cool. John Carmack essentially putting his sig on it saying its the best vr the world has ever seen, and some great devs seeing it and then nearly changing direction immediately because of 15mins with it - that should be proof enough. ...not to mention ours will likely be a bit better than the ones THEY used.

3)They are scrambling to get these things to us...there's a lot that must be in place from tech service, etc. Last I looked they are 20 guys with big support and maybe limited cash at the moment.

4) Again, their product finally depends upon YOU being happy and productive! You are NOT the end of the line.

So sit back, be patient, and let them get you your new toy.

[Pyry]

@geekmaster... why do you think they don't release it? They love tons of people speculating. Shows them and possible investors how people are waiting for the product.

Past kickstarters have shown that generally backers are pretty understanding about delays and setbacks as long as they're kept up to date and believe that progress is being made. It's when projects go dark that people start talking about lawsuits over almost trivially small sums of money. Oculus's surprise delay was taken pretty well last time, but kickstarter backers might not be so understanding if another surprise delay is announced at GDC. It's pretty risky to engage in brinkmanship with bad news; I hope Oculus knows what they're doing.

[KBK]

clarity emerges in the last point (above post), as people have received functional 'final' dev kit rifts. This we know.(as well as we can)

My speculation is that it is merely a delivery timing issue, and the natives are getting restless.

[geekmaster]

@geekmaster... why do you think they don't release it? They love tons of people speculating. Shows them and possible investors how people are waiting for the product.

Past kickstarters have shown that generally backers are pretty understanding about delays and setbacks as long as they're kept up to date and believe that progress is being made. It's when projects go dark that people start talking about lawsuits over almost trivially small sums of money. Oculus's surprise delay was taken pretty well last time, but kickstarter backers might not be so understanding if another surprise delay is announced at GDC. It's pretty risky to engage in brinkmanship with bad news; I hope Oculus knows what they're doing.

No need to get angry here. Just know that Oculus does know what they are doing. They must honor commitments that require this secrecy until it is time to make such announcements via the proper channels. Specific details are not being published, but may be available on request to trusted parties, via private messages. Enough said, I think... Let's all sit back and relax, and have happy thoughts about what we WILL do when we get our Rift Dev Kits. They will come soon enough.

EDIT: There are some informational tidbits floating around the greater interwebs that may calm our Oculus news cravings:]

Oculus put an embargo in place on information until the GDC on the 26th... The point from this story: Expect a huge info dump involving the Rift on the 26th!

I hope that helps to relieve some of your interminable pain and suffering caused by the anxiety of unknown delays.

[Pyry]

Oh, I'm not angry, I consider my kickstarter donations gone forever when I hit the button. I'm reasonably confident that Oculus knows what they're doing from a technical and manufacturing perspective, and that they'll eventually ship out the devkits which will work more-or-less as promised. I'm less confident that they know what they're doing from a PR perspective, especially since the last delay was not handled... optimally.

In the spirit of unfounded speculation, my feeling is that there is a 40% chance that the devkits will ship in March as promised, a 50% chance that they're delayed or that they didn't make the "magic 5000", and a 10% chance that Oculus was bought by Microsoft and only official partners will get devkits and everyone else will get XBox Live subscriptions.

[brantlew]

All the hype is coming from the USERS, not from Oculus staff (who actually try to moderate it somewhat in the demo videos).

Bingo! Forum hype is at hysterical levels. The Rift Dev Kit is NOT the Matrix - and I worry that there may be some backlash from people who have talked themselves into that belief. Honestly the most muted responses I see are from people who know the most about the product because there just aren't many surprises. The strengths and weaknesses are there and are known in advance.

The most fun responses I get are from people that know nothing about it. I had the pleasure of showing it off at a party recently. Not a bunch of tech people. Just normal people who had heard nothing about it and it shows best to people who have no idea of what they are about to see or how it works. Then the experience just washes over them. Even girls like it - "oh this is pretty", "wow I want to go there". It speaks volumes to me to have all these females who have obsessed over their hair and makeup lining up for seconds to strap a ridiculous box on their face

But it doesn't take long for people that know about it or are well versed with technology to start looking for and finding the flaws.

[geekmaster]

But it doesn't take long for people that know about it or are well versed with technology it to start looking for and finding the flaws.

I have been waiting for this stuff all my life... well, actually, I have been waiting for a direct neural interface, and this will be a poor substitute. But at least this is a HUGE step in the right direction. I personally want to experiment with anamorphic lenses for a wider horizontal FoV, but my concern is that we really need a lot more pixels before we start stretching them even more. I think at this resolution, the Rift lenses are probably an ideal compromise between FoV and central pixel density. But even so, it will be GREAT fun using it in many new and exciting ways that we have not even imagined yet. I am looking forward to it, and I REFUSE to be disappointed by any shortcomings! It is what it is, and I accept that for all it is worth. But that will not stop me from trying to make it better anyway...

[Kirito]

and its a dev kit not the consumer thing so no worries here

[ElMatarife]

Bear with me a moment. Last year, I went to a local chocolate conference. A guy named Clay Gordon gave an excellent presentation, but one line of it really stuck with me. He talks about how people come up to him all the time with suggestions of the world's best chocolate, and he always hears them out. Clay said recently, a guy came up to him and said "I've found the world's best chocolate. It's in this little village in Italy". At that point, Clay was intrigued. After all, if you imagined a place for the world's best chocolate, some little mountain village in Italy is about what you would picture right? Then the guy continues "My wife and I found this place on our honeymoon" at which point Clay basically stopped listening. Why? Emotion and excitement and the sheer thrill of something new and different ALWAYS taints your perception. You can't be emotional about a new experience and be a rational, objective critic at the same time.

Now think about the way every developer who doesn't have a VIP kit has seen the Rift. It's always been at a trade show, which is generally exciting enough on its own even without the standard day drinking. The developer has heard praises sung by practically ever big figure in gaming but Will Wright, Sid Meier, and Shigeru Miyamoto. To top it off, he's probably got to wait in a short line while watching other people get their mind blown. There's ZERO chance of getting an impression that's anything less than mindblowing. It's only once people have dev units in their hands and use it for two to three weeks will they really start to understand the day to day use.

Don't get me wrong, the Rift is a disruptive innovation that's going to change the way we game. However, it's going to do so over at least three to five year period, even if you calculate based on the dev cycles on AAA level titles alone without any other obstacles. The dev kit you're buying is essentially going to be a $300 toy for the first three months after launch. I guarantee you the very people who are totally hyperventilating right now and spending four figures to build a new PC are going to be let down. They'll be in here making complaints like "it's too heavy, there's not enough pixel density and I can see the screen door, there's a slight lag when I move my head, and there's only like 10 games to play that only kinda work".

[Kirito]

Bear with me a moment. Last year, I went to a local chocolate conference. A guy named Clay Gordon gave an excellent presentation, but one line of it really stuck with me. He talks about how people come up to him all the time with suggestions of the world's best chocolate, and he always hears them out. Clay said recently, a guy came up to him and said "I've found the world's best chocolate. It's in this little village in Italy". At that point, Clay was intrigued. After all, if you imagined a place for the world's best chocolate, some little mountain village in Italy is about what you would picture right? Then the guy continues "My wife and I found this place on our honeymoon" at which point Clay basically stopped listening. Why? Emotion and excitement and the sheer thrill of something new and different ALWAYS taints your perception. You can't be emotional about a new experience and be a rational, objective critic at the same time.

Now think about the way every developer who doesn't have a VIP kit has seen the Rift. It's always been at a trade show, which is generally exciting enough on its own even without the standard day drinking. The developer has heard praises sung by practically ever big figure in gaming but Will Wright, Sid Meier, and Shigeru Miyamoto. To top it off, he's probably got to wait in a short line while watching other people get their mind blown. There's ZERO chance of getting an impression that's anything less than mindblowing. It's only once people have dev units in their hands and use it for two to three weeks will they really start to understand the day to day use.

Don't get me wrong, the Rift is a disruptive innovation that's going to change the way we game. However, it's going to do so over at least three to five year period, even if you calculate based on the dev cycles on AAA level titles alone without any other obstacles. The dev kit you're buying is essentially going to be a $300 toy for the first three months after launch. I guarantee you the very people who are totally hyperventilating right now and spending four figures to build a new PC are going to be let down. They'll be in here making complaints like "it's too heavy, there's not enough pixel density and I can see the screen door, there's a slight lag when I move my head, and there's only like 10 games to play that only kinda work".

its called a "dev kit" for a reason

[zeroxygen]

Assuming they receive the initial units before the 25th, my guess is that they will hold off until the last possible point before GDC to ship them. The reason for this would be to get a better handle on the press at GDC. Up until this point every demonstration had them around to guide. If the kits shipped and were at doors before, hype could die down before GDC and there would be less of an impact there.

So I am going to say they will likely ship them late next week or early the week of GDC, assuming they have any.

Pure speculation of course, as that is all we can do.

[ElMatarife]

its called a "dev kit" for a reason

Exactly! Don't buy this and expect a life changing experience with zero flaws.

Assuming they receive the initial units before the 25th, my guess is that they will hold off until the last possible point before GDC to ship them. The reason for this would be to get a better handle on the press at GDC. Up until this point every demonstration had them around to guide. If the kits shipped and were at doors before, hype could die down before GDC and there would be less of an impact there.

Expiring an NDA at GDC, along with a big showy event to announce the shipping of the Rift dev kits and some additional software is a great way to get thousands upon thousands of dollars of free press. I guarantee you it will be the top story on all the big tech news sites, and may even make some mainstream media reports.

[geekmaster]

...
Now think about the way every developer who doesn't have a VIP kit has seen the Rift. It's always been at a trade show, which is generally exciting enough on its own even without the standard day drinking. The developer has heard praises sung by practically ever big figure in gaming but Will Wright, Sid Meier, and Shigeru Miyamoto. To top it off, he's probably got to wait in a short line while watching other people get their mind blown. There's ZERO chance of getting an impression that's anything less than mindblowing. It's only once people have dev units in their hands and use it for two to three weeks will they really start to understand the day to day use. ...

So if I get your drift, the glowing reviews come from the "contact high" of being at the conference with all the buzz and excitement, and then the anticipation while waiting in line, and seeing people grinning like a monkey after their little Rift demo, with all the group excitement washing over the participants. Then back at the ranch, in the privacy of your own home, the lack of a group experience will leave a void in the experience that you got vicariously while watching the demo videos. And over the coming weeks, when the excitement of the available software for it wears off, some of the Rifts will get put away with the other disused tech toys that wore out their welcome.

Well, maybe for some people, but a lot of us are MAKERS rather than just USERS, and we will make this thing into all that it can be. Hopefully, our contributions of new demos and new apps will cause a positive feedback loop of glorious creativity. Let's make that happen! I know I sure want to help the coming golden age of VR gain self-sustaining momentum this time. Let's do it!

Although I do not hype the hardware, I certainly want to keep on hyping WHAT THIS THING CAN BE, if enough of us make it so!

[Tirregius]

Bear with me a moment. Last year, I went to a local chocolate conference. A guy named Clay Gordon gave an excellent presentation, but one line of it really stuck with me. He talks about how people come up to him all the time with suggestions of the world's best chocolate, and he always hears them out. Clay said recently, a guy came up to him and said "I've found the world's best chocolate. It's in this little village in Italy". At that point, Clay was intrigued. After all, if you imagined a place for the world's best chocolate, some little mountain village in Italy is about what you would picture right? Then the guy continues "My wife and I found this place on our honeymoon" at which point Clay basically stopped listening. Why? Emotion and excitement and the sheer thrill of something new and different ALWAYS taints your perception. You can't be emotional about a new experience and be a rational, objective critic at the same time.

Now think about the way every developer who doesn't have a VIP kit has seen the Rift. It's always been at a trade show, which is generally exciting enough on its own even without the standard day drinking. The developer has heard praises sung by practically ever big figure in gaming but Will Wright, Sid Meier, and Shigeru Miyamoto. To top it off, he's probably got to wait in a short line while watching other people get their mind blown. There's ZERO chance of getting an impression that's anything less than mindblowing. It's only once people have dev units in their hands and use it for two to three weeks will they really start to understand the day to day use.

Don't get me wrong, the Rift is a disruptive innovation that's going to change the way we game. However, it's going to do so over at least three to five year period, even if you calculate based on the dev cycles on AAA level titles alone without any other obstacles. The dev kit you're buying is essentially going to be a $300 toy for the first three months after launch. I guarantee you the very people who are totally hyperventilating right now and spending four figures to build a new PC are going to be let down. They'll be in here making complaints like "it's too heavy, there's not enough pixel density and I can see the screen door, there's a slight lag when I move my head, and there's only like 10 games to play that only kinda work".

I've personally set my expectations this way: I hope I get some decent dev tools/example code and maybe a couple of demos of rift implementation out of the box. Hardware wise, I don't expect fantastic clarity, but from what I can gather, from folks that have demoed the Rift with no clue what to expect, and/or have a quite jaded eye as an insider, well, I'd be very surprised if it wasn't compelling. Why would the Hawken guys put serious time into a Rift-specific mode if it wasn't compelling. I can smell a sham a mile away and this is not one. There's no chance there's tons and tons of overhype so that they can convince a bunch of suckers to buy the dev kit.

Sure, temper your expectationsin many respects but there's no reason to believe that this thing coming isn't cool as sh_t. If it isn't, THAT would be the improbable coming true, and this is me trying to be as rational as possible about it.

[cerulianbaloo]

Assuming they receive the initial units before the 25th, my guess is that they will hold off until the last possible point before GDC to ship them. The reason for this would be to get a better handle on the press at GDC. Up until this point every demonstration had them around to guide. If the kits shipped and were at doors before, hype could die down before GDC and there would be less of an impact there.

So I am going to say they will likely ship them late next week or early the week of GDC, assuming they have any.

Pure speculation of course, as that is all we can do.

This has been my intuition as well, despite their claims that dev kits will be in people's hands before GDC (and maybe they mean VIPs). It could be big partner announcements and games in development by who knows what studios, or peripherals, which really wouldn't affect the dev kits as they are, but I do get a feeling they may hold off on shipping until just before GDC. I hope that's not the case as it reeks of pure PR showmanship, but I can see how it helps their hype train too. As someone said, they can do whatever they want, just please don't poop in my box

[ElMatarife]

I've personally set my expectations this way: I hope I get some decent dev tools/example code and maybe a couple of demos of rift implementation out of the box. Hardware wise, I don't expect fantastic clarity, but from what I can gather, from folks that have demoed the Rift with no clue what to expect, and/or have a quite jaded eye as an insider, well, I'd be very surprised if it wasn't compelling. Why would the Hawken guys put serious time into a Rift-specific mode if it wasn't compelling. I can smell a sham a mile away and this is not one. There's no chance there's tons and tons of overhype so that they can convince a bunch of suckers to buy the dev kit.

Sure, temper your expectationsin many respects but there's no reason to believe that this thing coming isn't cool as sh_t. If it isn't, THAT would be the improbable coming true, and this is me trying to be as rational as possible about it.

Yeah, it's going that cool. I don't doubt it for even one second. I just think that there's a lot of caveats like that list I mentioned and people who are buying this expecting to play every game in it from now on are fooling themselves. And it's going to have it's fair share of issues just like any first gen device. If nothing else, you're going to blow people's minds at parties.

Just don't go too overboard talking about how this is the realization of all the 1980-1996 VR science fiction come true, and DEFINITELY don't pin hopes on any technology that's barely in the laboratory stage right now. Honestly, the laboratory stuff needs it's own forum in here, as does the philosophy / ethics / impact stuff. I think the Rift forum should just be hardware and software talk specifically about the Rift itself.

[zeroxygen]

This has been my intuition as well, despite their claims that dev kits will be in people's hands before GDC (and maybe they mean VIPs). It could be big partner announcements and games in development by who knows what studios, or peripherals, which really wouldn't affect the dev kits as they are, but I do get a feeling they may hold off on shipping until just before GDC. I hope that's not the case as it reeks of pure PR showmanship, but I can see how it helps their hype train too. As someone said, they can do whatever they want, just please don't poop in my box

An additional initial shipment delay of 1-2 weeks to provide a better show at a major event seems too wise. I wouldn't fault them if they decided to do this. They have to succeed in many ways to make sure we aren't stuck on dev kits forever.

I would love to see the SDK early myself, but I imagine that will be timed for the open of GDC as well.

[Fredz]

True that chart was posted by Oculus.
However that was on November 28th. People here, have taken that the factory can produce 500 a day. They have multiplied it by 12 and subtracted 1000. This is where the "Magic 5000" comes from.
There is NO 5000 have been produced statement from Oculus.
None.
We can't just take a number that someone has made up and take it a value.
This is the problem. Speculation is now being argued as FACT.

Actually no, the "Magic 5000" doesn't come from members of this forum but from this chart published by Oculus. It's just an estimation and should be taken for what it is, but at this time that's the only information we have from Oculus concerning the shipping. So it's no wonder that everyone is fantasizing on this number.

Estimated 1st arrival (Approx. 5,000 developer kits).png

[alpha]

From Feb 04 Kickstarter Update:

After a long, exciting week at CES, we packed up and flew directly from Las Vegas to Hong Kong to oversee the pilot run at the factory. We lived on the factory floor for just over two weeks setting up production, assembly, and QA for the developer kits.

The result? We produced over 40 complete Oculus Rift "pilot run" developer kits and we're on schedule to start shipping the full kits in March.

I just want to paint the worst case scenario, sorry

Two week are 10 work days, that is 4 Rifts per day. However someone would speculate that the first few days didn't produce any Rifts at all and the last days did produce all.
For the 12 first production days worst case would be 48 Rifts, but this sounds very unbelievable.

Here is my personal uneducated guess: 425 Rifts per day for 12 days would be over 5000 - so in the end all is good.

[cybereality]

Guys, please relax. There is a method to the madness.

The main reason there have been no recent updates on the shipping, is that nothing major has changed. We're still on track to start shipping this month.

We will be revealing more information soon, please be patient.

[mrklaw]

Bear with me a moment. Last year, I went to a local chocolate conference. A guy named Clay Gordon gave an excellent presentation, but one line of it really stuck with me. He talks about how people come up to him all the time with suggestions of the world's best chocolate, and he always hears them out. Clay said recently, a guy came up to him and said "I've found the world's best chocolate. It's in this little village in Italy". At that point, Clay was intrigued. After all, if you imagined a place for the world's best chocolate, some little mountain village in Italy is about what you would picture right? Then the guy continues "My wife and I found this place on our honeymoon" at which point Clay basically stopped listening. Why? Emotion and excitement and the sheer thrill of something new and different ALWAYS taints your perception. You can't be emotional about a new experience and be a rational, objective critic at the same time.

Now think about the way every developer who doesn't have a VIP kit has seen the Rift. It's always been at a trade show, which is generally exciting enough on its own even without the standard day drinking. The developer has heard praises sung by practically ever big figure in gaming but Will Wright, Sid Meier, and Shigeru Miyamoto. To top it off, he's probably got to wait in a short line while watching other people get their mind blown. There's ZERO chance of getting an impression that's anything less than mindblowing. It's only once people have dev units in their hands and use it for two to three weeks will they really start to understand the day to day use.

Don't get me wrong, the Rift is a disruptive innovation that's going to change the way we game. However, it's going to do so over at least three to five year period, even if you calculate based on the dev cycles on AAA level titles alone without any other obstacles. The dev kit you're buying is essentially going to be a $300 toy for the first three months after launch. I guarantee you the very people who are totally hyperventilating right now and spending four figures to build a new PC are going to be let down. They'll be in here making complaints like "it's too heavy, there's not enough pixel density and I can see the screen door, there's a slight lag when I move my head, and there's only like 10 games to play that only kinda work".

You've been to some very different trade shows to me then. My experience is the polar opposite. A bunch of jaded devs and journos seeing the same thing over and over again. It takes a lot to make people really go wow.


Anyway, I thought that Gantt chart suggested oculus should have the first batch with them by now. If they're holding on artificially to create buzz around GDC then that's not good. They've delayed once - fair enough they let us know. But I could do with some more info about now.

[GeraldT]

Guys, please relax. There is a method to the madness.

The main reason there have been no recent updates on the shipping, is that nothing major has changed. We're still on track to start shipping this month.

We will be revealing more information soon, please be patient.

"Hey guys - everything is on schedule!" is something many early backers would consider a major update.

I am not in the first batch, but I would love to know where I stand and what I can expect too.

[unsilentwill]

"Hey guys - everything is on schedule!"

Guess you can't have the "Holy Grail" without a few mad crusades...

Also I'm afraid there's not a thing anyone can do about my expectations anymore. Oh well, I'm thrilled regardless.

[RABID]

i think the rifts are in that cave.......

[GeraldT]

"Hey guys - everything is on schedule!"

Guess you can't have the "Holy Grail" without a few mad crusades...

Also I'm afraid there's not a thing anyone can do about my expectations anymore. Oh well, I'm thrilled regardless.

Thanks - good example on how those posts help:

"Ah screw it, just ordered one for the heck of it." ... just one of the comments there.

[squibbfire]

I like how cyber reality has to come to the forum and calm the nerd herd...

guys guys...just... just relax a little its gonna be ok...don't hurt anyone!:)

[Mystify]

Thanks - good example on how those posts help:

"Ah screw it, just ordered one for the heck of it." ... just one of the comments there.

That looks like it was in regards to a hydra, not the rift

[GeraldT]

Thanks - good example on how those posts help:

"Ah screw it, just ordered one for the heck of it." ... just one of the comments there.

That looks like it was in regards to a hydra, not the rift

yeah I mean they are obviously working on getting hydras out there so people have it when the Rift arrives

damn, it would have made such a nice example

[KBK]

I'm having a real laugh reading it (reddit). Some of it is quite hilarious.

[twofoe]

Hmm... I'd like to chime in and say that 5,000 dev kits in the first batch is the most likely scenario. Think about it: Oculus made that estimate themselves, and they know more about the factory than anyone else. We have gained no additional information since the estimate was made to suggest that they are anything other than on schedule. The only thing we have are worries and speculations that something went wrong.

That said, less than 5,000 Rifts is the 2nd likeliest scenario, followed by the 3rd likeliest: more than 5,000. It is easier to do worse than a prediction than it is to do better. Given our lack of recent information, however, I wouldn't put too much weight on the more likely scenario. Maybe 60/40 "5000 Rifts" vs "less than 5000." Brace yourself for disappointment, but don't take it as a given.

[PalmerTech]

That is why there are ticket systems. In one of my old companies the boss looked a couple of times a day if there is an unanswered ticket that is older than 24h... and took care of it if there was.

PR is not magic, it just needs to be done right. And they suck at it if suchs slips happen.

That is one of the reasons we have been working nonstop on our new Developer Center, which has forums, downloads, a support ticket system, etc. It is launching very soon, nothing should be able to slip through that. Try to remember that we are still a tiny company, and the people who do customer support have to wear a lot of other hats. We are on the cusp of shipping units, launching our SDK, announcing a pile of sweet stuff, and running our first "real" presence at a show, GDC. I promise that your email was not ignored on purpose, and lots of people with your same question have gotten a response.

Feel free to reach out to me at palmer.luckey@oculusvr.com, I will make sure you are taken care of.

[mattyeatsmatts]

I emailed Oculus about my payment of my order and they sorted it and got back to me straight away. Its little things like this that impress me.

[Thodder7]

Well Cyber says they are still on schedule =D

Which is great news! and it is funny that he had to come on here and "calm the nerd herd". haha

...is PalmerTech, actually Palmer Lucky?...

I don't really have any expectations, Although I would really like to get my hands on my dev kit this month! I love what you guys are doing, Lucky, Cyber, everyone at Oculus, and I can't wait to experience the RIFT.

Perhaps I can bribe my doctor to put me under for the next week...