2010 Year in Review

[PressBot]

By Neil Schneider

It's hard to believe that 2010 is almost over!

Each year, we like to do a check on what MTBS, S3DGA, and the industry have done in the realm of 3D gaming to see how far we have come, and where we are headed.  Here we go!

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[cybereality]

Its been an awesome year for 3D. Although it doesn't seem like 3D has hit prime-time yet, all the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. With James Cameron legitimizing the 3D cinema experience with Avatar, just at the end of 2009, I think 3D was given a fresh start in 2010. Here are some of the key moments for 3D in 2010:

- With the finalization of the new 3D standard (HDMI 1.4) and support from lots of major companies (Sony on PS3, all major CEMs with stand-alone 3D Blu-Ray players and HDTVs, Nvidia 3DTV Play, AMD HD3D) we finally have a solution that is very close to "plug and play".

- 3D HDTVs are widely available at every big box outlet and online retailer, for only a moderate premium over comparable high-end 2D TVs. Many retailers have the 3D features prominently displayed (ie it says 3D on the info label, on the box, on the sticker attached to the demo unit). Some companies like Panasonic and Samsung have made an effort to supply retail chains with "3D Kiosks" where interested users can demo sample 3D material.

- 3D Blu-Ray players and discs are now available at major electronic stores and online outlets (which is pretty major considering the HQFS format has been virtually dead for years, leaving no viable distribution media for 3D video).

- There is finally real stereo 3D broadcasts on satellite and cable tv, like ESPN 3D. We had a major international sporting event broadcast in 3D, the 2010 World Cup, and many other local events have been aired during this time.

- We have also seen game developers finally start optimizing their games for 3D. Multiple PC titles were certified by Nvidia as "3D-Ready" and a number of console games had native 3D support.

- Nintendo announced the 3DS, a mass market portable 3D gaming console with an auto-stereoscopic screen. The importance of this cannot be understated.

So I think it has been a major year for 3D, however I wouldn't call it "watershed" by any means and we are yet to reach the tipping point. Major tech blogs have seemed to open up to 3D in the last few months, evidenced by Gizmodo (with a traditionally staunch anti-3d spin) running a number of pro-3D articles and unbiased 3DTV reviews and even branding the site as "Gizmodo 3D". While the 3D banner was clearly done "tongue-in-cheek", it at least shows that they are taking 3D somewhat seriously and attempting to remove whatever bias they might have had. The user comments on some articles still seem largely negative toward 3D, but there are more pro-3D voices in the crowd recently. Also, with the announcement of the Nintendo 3DS, I feel the general gaming community is much more open to playing games in 3D. Since glasses are no longer required, it seems the major social stigma of "3d dorkiness" has been lifted. So the response to the Nintendo 3DS has been almost all positive, and gamers seem generally excited to finally find out what 3D gaming looks like. Which leads me to believe that the problems 3D face in terms of going mainstream are not technical in nature, but rather social. This is actually not the worst problem to have. If popular sentiment can be swayed with a few good 3D products and/or promotions, then I think 3D will finally get the publicity and acclaim it deserves.

2011 is going to be the make-or-break year for 3D. After 2010, everybody at least knows about 3D now. They have heard the TVs are out, they have maybe even seen a 3D film. So that is one major road-block overcome (can't sell someone something they don't know exists). But there is still mass confusion regarding the technology, and much of the public opinion is based more on rumor and hear-say than actual experience. So 2011 should be the year people get to experience 3D. For example, for every one person that buys a 3D HDTV, how many people will they show it to? Probably everyone they know. So even if only 5% of people actually buy 3DTVs, if they each show 10 friends, that's over 50% of people that have experienced 3D. When you factor in other avenues of 3D proliferation, for example a kid gets a Nintendo 3DS for his birthday. Shows his parents, his brother and sister, shows all his friends at school. One of his friends then gets one, shows his father some 3D movie trailer on it. His dad likes it so much he buys a 3D home theater projector and a 3D Blu-Ray player. Now this dad invites all his friends over for a 3D movie night. His friends (maybe even just a few of them) get blown away, start researching 3D on the internet. The cycle continues. Then by the end of 2012 3D will finally become main-stream. However once the world population realizes how amazing 3D is, and what they have been missing this whole time, it creates a rift in the space-time-continuum which tears a hole in the fabric of reality and completely destroys the universe as we know it, thus fulfilling the Mayan prophecy. And, yes, I do realize that I am stark raving mad.

[Neil]

With respect to Mizmodo's late to the plate and half-step enthusiasm for 3D, there are tier one websites that put out some great 3D articles without the need for a sponsorship cheque from Sony.

Tom's Hardware, Legit Reviews, X-Bit Labs, TechRadar, and countless more are working examples. I think this is more exciting and deserving of the community's recognition.

Regards,
Neil

[cybereality]

With respect to Mizmodo's late to the plate and half-step enthusiasm for 3D, there are tier one websites that put out some great 3D articles without the need for a sponsorship cheque from Sony.

Tom's Hardware, Legit Reviews, X-Bit Labs, TechRadar, and countless more are working examples. I think this is more exciting and deserving of the community's recognition.

Oh yes, I do agree that there are tech sites out there with fair opinions that have reviewed 3D hardware such as Nvidia 3D Vision or recent 3D HDTVs. However, in terms of mindshare, Gizmodo is probably the biggest mainstream tech-blog out there. The vast majority of mainstream users are thus swayed by their opinions, and their coverage and bias of 3D sets the tone for a general negative perception of 3D on the internet and, by extension, the real-world (whether or not that perception is actually valid). Of course there are sites that cater to more advanced PC users, like the ones you mentioned, or forums like AVS which attract a more sophisticated crowd. So the type of advanced PC users (like PC gamers) that are members of those sites likely already know about stereo 3D and may have an opinion of it independent of their favorite tech-site. On the other-hand, Gawker users seem way more likely to ride the trends, or jump on whatever is the popular band-wagon. So right now 3D is not exactly "in vogue", so it is desirable for them to bash 3D as this reinforces the status quo. It is not just a matter of them not liking 3D. There are many blog posts that do not interest a lot of people. Most of the time on these posts there will only be a handful of comments. However on 3D posts there are usually pages of comments (100 or more) of people largely going out of their way to bash 3D. So they seem to be gaining some social validation from feeling that they are part of something, such as a movement against 3D. If they were merely not interested in 3D, there wouldn't be some much active resistance. It is part of something else.

For example, I am a long-time Windows power-user and occasionally dabble in Linux. To be honest, I do not like Apple computers, I don't like the iPhone, I don't feel comfortable in OSX, I don't like their business model, their proprietary "walled garden", their advertising or branding, and Steve Jobs just irks me. But when I am reading a tech-blog (like say Engadget) and they have an article about Mac or OSX, guess what I do? I scroll down to the next article. I do not read the excerpt. I do not click "read more" to see the whole article. I do not read the comments, or even do I feel the need to post a comment. Why would I bother? If I don't like Apple, why spend time reading about them and talking about them? How do I benefit? Yet these people that allegedly don't care about 3D are doing just that. And this goes back to my point of social validation. So if our battle is not technical in nature but one of social perception, the most important objective is not publication of information, since that is already out there and available to anyone with sufficient motivation, but rather in controlling the propaganda and disinformation that is being proliferated by opposing parties. Some of this is coming from the blog writers themselves, that often take "low-blow" pot-shots at 3D any chance they get (ie "dorky glasses" jokes). This sets the tone for the comments, in which people proceed to continue the 3D-bashing. However a lot of this sentiment comes from the users themselves. Obviously they are free to write whatever they please, no one is putting a gun to their head making them say these things. However some sites, like Gizmodo, could do a lot more to push users toward more positive trains of thought. Do you see what I am saying? I mean, I know they get sent all sorts of hardware for free. Surely they have the Nvidia 3D Vision with a better computer than I have to run it. And they likely have the latest 3D HDTVs (maybe not every single model, but surely at least one or two) with a 3D Blu-Ray player, the glasses and everything. Even if they don't have a full setup in the office, I know for sure they've been to trade shows where all this stuff and more have been displayed. So they have seen it, they know 3D is for real (unless they all happen to be of the 10% of people that allegedly can't see 3D, you never know). But for whatever reason they are not imparting this knowledge to their users (who likely do not have 3D hardware and maybe only saw a single 3D movie in the theater or have never seen modern 3D at all).

So if we ever hope to have 3D become *THE* standard, we need these kinds of mainstream sites to actively support the transition. I am talking about 3D taking over completely, in the sense that 2D content is not longer produced at all (except for maybe some indie art-house films, similar to how no major movies are released in black & white anymore). Obviously this is not going to happen until we have much more advanced technology than we have today, so I am clearly referring to next-generation auto-stereoscopic solutions (such as holographic projection). But in order to get to that point in any reasonable time-frame, we need this current generation of stereo 3d to succeed. For 3D to fail at this point, could halt much commercial R&D into 3D and also make investors uneasy in sinking money into what is perceived as a passing fad. Just look at what happened with VR from the 90's. It is like 20 years later and there has been barely any progress in the field. Of course, there will still be academic developments and major corporations like Microsoft and Apple can continue to blow as much money as they please on these endeavors. Also, a company like Apple holds enough weight that they could seriously affect public opinion by releasing a 3D product (lets say the iPhone 5 having an auto-stereo screen) and the requisite media blitz of advertising and "sponsored" journalism. This could turn the tides overnight. However, barring something major like this (although the upcoming release of the Nintendo 3DS could be just as significant) we need popular opinion-shaping websites to be on board for the ride. So I am very much following the progression of bias (or lack there of) shown on Gizmodo from their writers and also the members. What they do with their weight can very much accelerate the adoption of stereo 3D as much as it could set it back by several years or more. That is all I am getting at.

[Chiefwinston]

I believe HDMI 1.4 sealed the fate of consumer 3D. 2010 has been a huge year for 3D because of HDMI 1.4. Some blogger at some web site critical of 3D and its adoption will not make or break its adoption at this point. The damn was broken with HDMI 1.4.


cheers everyone

[cybereality]

Some blogger at some web site critical of 3D and its adoption will not make or break its adoption at this point.

Yeah, maybe not one single negative article on a single site, but it all adds up.