Could developer kits be shipping too early?

Post by **Volte6** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:45 pm

In this article ( http://www.fastcompany.com/3006316/inno ... nmower-man ) Brendan Iribe implies consumer versions MIGHT be available in 24 months (maybe later).

My concern is basically that work put into producing games now may become irrelevant by the time the rift ships... are studios going to continue to invest resources in a product that doesn't make it to market? Especially if it takes more than 24 months... what if it's 36 months before the rift hits the public?

Obviously independent developers can work with that kind of a schedule, but if the current rift prototype is more of an exploration tool than a legitimate development kit (that will work towards a clear goal), this could burn studios that are excited early on.

Post by **IGameArt** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:50 pm

Considering that most major game developers easily spent upwards of a year working on new ip's, i dont think thats too big of an issue when you combine the time it takes to get the products to the shelves. But until then the devkit owners can still have fun with them. and nothing is preventing consumers from buying devkits if they are hardcore vr enthusiasts which is who we'd end up targetting anyways.

Post by **Mystify** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:55 pm

I can't see how you could justify not shipping dev kits now, as its the funding from the kickstarter igniting these possibilities. You could argue that they would be waiting too long for a customer version, but I think the determiner for that is how long it takes to incorporate developer feedback(plus the improvements they are already planning on, of course). This is all an interconnected cycle, not shipping dev kits as soon as they can has never been a real option.

Post by **twofoe** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:57 pm

IGameArt wrote:Considering that most major game developers easily spent upwards of a year working on new ip's, i dont think thats too big of an issue when you combine the time it takes to get the products to the shelves. But until then the devkit owners can still have fun with them. and nothing is preventing consumers from buying devkits if they are hardcore vr enthusiasts which is who we'd end up targetting anyways.

And remember that the reason Brendan gave for it potentially taking that long was that it would take a while for enough games to be released. In multiple interviews, Oculus has implied that they're setting their release date based on when the community is ready, rather than solely when the hardware's ready.

Post by **cybereality** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:06 pm

Keep in mind that some games take years to create. At first a lot of people will probably we porting existing projects to the Rift, and this will be a lot faster. But if developers are starting new projects, built from the ground up for the Rift, its not unreasonable to think it could take one or even two years to complete.

Post by **Owen** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:15 pm

Even a quick port might be undesirable, I don't think there are many games out there that would work without significant design changes. Most stuff released this year will probably be pretty rough. Its better for consumers to wait until really polished (and uniquely compelling) stuff is available, and for a few iterations of developer feedback on the hardware.

About a year of developer lead time is pretty common for a new platform, otherwise you risk launching a flop.

Post by **3dRat** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:19 pm

cybereality wrote:Keep in mind that some games take years to create. At first a lot of people will probably we porting existing projects to the Rift, and this will be a lot faster. But if developers are starting new projects, built from the ground up for the Rift, its not unreasonable to think it could take one or even two years to complete.

I think that could be dangerous for Oculus, before 24 months definitely Sony, MS or even Apple could have released a really strong competitor for the Rift....(now that Oculus has shown how things must be done)

Post by **Direlight** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:21 pm

12-24+ months, which honestly is a good thing. VR is an extremely high tech field, needs lots of "incubation time".

Lots of things need to be developed, optimized, and lowered in price. Small 1080p+ screens need to become affordable, video cards need to drop in price (we'll need beastly cards), games need to be optimized, converters need development, and motion controllers/emulators need to be expanded.

Post by **TheHolyChicken** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:26 pm

I basically read it to be "at some point at after ~1 year minimum". I assume ~1 year is what's required to make a more polished version of the current rift. However, they may decide to add further hardware changes, or to deliberately wait for more software support (even with finished hardware) so the launch has more oomph. He's just trying to be as vague as possible. The key is that they're basically launching when they think the time is right.

Post by **Pingles** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:29 pm

For them to have some truly Rift-driven games I think that two years is a great target.

Especially if they keep selling dev kits so tech-savvy folks can run mods and wrappers to play other games. That will keep word of mouth strong.

But when they go retail we need some games doing things that haven't been seen before gameplay-wise.

The idea I am working on I think will be unique enough where the Rift gameplay will sell it more than he game's theme itself.

Just converting today's games for the Rift won't be enough. We are going to need games where the Rift is almost necessary.

Post by **MSat** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:53 pm

There's really no established formula for making VR games yet - that's a big part of what the dev kit is set out to help do. Oculus could have very well called it a "consumer device", even though in some ways it is, as they haven't restricted sales specifically to developers. If they did try promoting it as a consumer product though, they may have possibly set VR back another 10 years due to all the ducks not being in a row, and in turn left a bad taste in the mouths of average Joe consumer.

I don't see developers getting burned by implementing Rift support in their current games, even years ahead of the consumer release. It's not like they're going to make them VR-only, so any potential loss would be minimal in the grand scheme of things. In some ways, adding Rift support early may even future proof their games by catering to an upcoming market that will be craving any and all available content once the hardware is finally available. If it's any indication, almost all of us here have some "classic" games that we would love to play again on the Rift.

I think Oculus is playing it extremely smart by treading lightly in a market that had its image tarnished too many times in the past. While being too late would certainly be bad, being too early would likely be even worse - as history has shown. 12 to 24 months sounds like an excellent balance.

Post by **GeraldT** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:31 pm

3dRat wrote: I think that could be dangerous for Oculus, before 24 months definitely Sony, MS or even Apple could have released a really strong competitor for the Rift....(now that Oculus has shown how things must be done)

I agree that there is this risk, especially with Sony, but they have to take risks. Lets say the console wars will end with Sony being behind and needing to push something cool on the market to get more attention, then I can see them trying the VR road.
Most likely though they will ignore this market as it is very costly to get into - Oculus can go the "slow" road, producing just a few devices (a couple of thousands, letting consumers wait etc.). But if Sony wants to bring a PS VR device, they can not do it without the anger of millions of gamers! They would have to produce at least a couple of hundred thousands to satisfy demand (if there is one) and that is a much bigger risk. They will just sit and wait, have their R&D departments work on alternatives, maybe have some inhouse titles adopted to it so they gain the experience and have some ready-to-go launch titles. If Oculus is a success, then they will try to grab the console (PS) portion of the VR market for themselves and see the Oculus as a PC product that is no problem (they don't need to open the PS to the Oculus).
Or they are completely ignorant and unprepared and must open to Oculus because Microsoft does so with the new Xbox.

Either way - Oculus is most likely on the safe side, risks are not something you can always avoid and being in fear of it should not guide your decisions. They do what is sensible - they try to produce the best product they can at the given point. Even labeling the first version a dev kit is a smart move, because it allows everyone to order one and still no press will ever rip it apart because it is just a dev kit. And they will start to make a profit the longer it is on the market. Maybe not a huge one, but if they still sell it for the same price half a year before they release a much stronger version at the same price point, then there has to be a decent margin.

Most important - I do think they are far from being in financial trouble, but for the big launch I am sure they need more investors in order to be able to produce enough kits. To get these and to create the projections of how many units to produce, they need time and reactions from gamers.
My guess is, that this xmas a used Oculus Rift will be worth twice the asking price for a new one. And if that happens, then Oculus will be able to prepare for a really big launch. If not, they will still be able to prepare whatever they deem sensible.

Post by **Owen** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:47 pm

Sony and MS won't touch VR until there are big name game developers asking them for it. And even then they won't and can't move fast because they would have to work it into their console hardware development cycles, and only THEN they could start sending out dev kits with a consumer model even further away.

Sony's panel manufacturing connections could allow them to make a better display, but definitely not reach the market first. It always takes a long time, and Oculus has a big head start.

Post by **squibbfire** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:49 pm

3dRat wrote:
cybereality wrote:Keep in mind that some games take years to create. At first a lot of people will probably we porting existing projects to the Rift, and this will be a lot faster. But if developers are starting new projects, built from the ground up for the Rift, its not unreasonable to think it could take one or even two years to complete.
I think that could be dangerous for Oculus, before 24 months definitely Sony, MS or even Apple could have released a really strong competitor for the Rift....(now that Oculus has shown how things must be done)

I agree 3d rat....someone could make something comparable in 4 months...or have something in the pipeline already...all it needs is to be a little similar and the game is over....It happens all the time...

Post by **che** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:07 pm

I was wondering, how will they survive paying 20 employeess for 2 years without releasing a product? They must have a good investor behind it.

Reddit · Post by **nateight** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:21 pm

che wrote:They must have a good investor behind it.

Post by **cerulianbaloo** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:27 pm

Lol. But seriously, wouldn't be surprised if Gabe, Carmack, or someone at Epic passed some love their way. Not to mention Iribe probably contributed some of that sweet Gaikai purchase money from Sony. Also chief tech dude who helped make the guitar hero controllers. I think they'll be fine for some time.

Post by **budda** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:44 pm

Hi,

Call me a little cynical, but I wonder what could happen with the Oculus Rift company.

It has over 20 staff and thats a lot of payroll to support for a product which is essentially a developers kit priced at entry level margins.

To me either of three things could happen.

1. Rich benefactors could keep the company rolling along until the company hits critical mass with the release of the 'must have' consumer Rift version. Then it will takeoff and be self-supporting. This could be years away.

2. The company is being plumped up and positioned for a take-over or strategic stakeholding by a major player. Everyone makes a kaboodle and the future direction of Rift products is controlled by the new owner.

3. The company could collapse or wither because of cash flow issues or competition.

It would be disappointing in the extreme if the dream run of the Oculus Rift came to an end this way. The time is right for successful virtual reality hardware and software, as I believe many people are craving it and they are fed up with the continual diabolical state of the industry.

Thanks.

Post by **cerulianbaloo** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:57 pm

All of those are possibilities but what's the use of speculating at this point? It's too early to determine anything, I mean nobody from the kickstarter even has their dev kit yet! GDC could tell us some interesting things as to Oculus' potential partnerships, but I really doubt it's anything earth-shattering along the lines of a takeover/buyout of the company. Best to just remain optimistic and have a wait and see attitude.

Post by **Owen** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:18 pm

Chances are the current executives/owners like Iribe bought in for a big chunk of money. Thats how startups typically work.

Post by **cybereality** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:21 pm

No inside information here, but I would honestly be surprised if the Oculus Rift did not become like the biggest thing ever.

Post by **2EyeGuy** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:25 pm

It's not shipping too early. It has to ship now. Without shipping the dev-kit now, there would be no Oculus Rift to have a consumer version of. Their kickstarter was a big part of it's creation.

When the consumer version ships mostly depends upon when the dev-kits are out, since they are waiting for games to be ready and for feedback. There might be some hardware stuff they are working on now for the consumer version, but I don't think they'd wait too much for that if masses of developers get software ready quickly.

Post by **cerulianbaloo** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:06 pm

cybereality wrote:No inside information here, but I would honestly be surprised if the Oculus Rift did not become like the biggest thing ever.

Have you seen things cyber? Like attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion? Or C-beams glittering in the dark near the Tannhauser gate?

Post by **cybereality** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:20 pm

cerulianbaloo wrote:Have you seen things cyber? Like attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion? Or C-beams glittering in the dark near the Tannhauser gate?

No. But I have seen the future and it's name is 'Oculus Rift'.

Post by **Drewbdoo** » Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:24 pm

cybereality wrote:
cerulianbaloo wrote:Have you seen things cyber? Like attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion? Or C-beams glittering in the dark near the Tannhauser gate?
No. But I have seen the future and it's name is 'Oculus Rift'.

so much do I hate you....

Seriously though - sometimes posts like this make me realize how far away the rift's "arrival" will be, but comments like yours remind me that in a month or two, I'll be having the amazing experiences ahead of the peasants

Post by **Parallaxis** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 1:14 am

cybereality wrote:Keep in mind that some games take years to create. At first a lot of people will probably we porting existing projects to the Rift, and this will be a lot faster. But if developers are starting new projects, built from the ground up for the Rift, its not unreasonable to think it could take one or even two years to complete.

I think you are wrong. No developer will make such an investment for a product that maybe will hit the market in 2-3 years and probably will be a niche product. There is too much risk and no money in that.

If your consumer model isn't released within a year of the developer kit, then I don't really think you should release the dev kit yet.

Post by **Diorama** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 1:41 am

Alright boys, you heard him! Cancel the devkits! I've PMed Palmer, the factory is shutting down production as we speak.

I mean, what with the 100% CONFIRMED 2016 consumer rift release date, Oculus would have to be some kind of DUMBASS CONVENTION to release the devkits. Like developers need a year or two headstart to create content in an entirely new medium. Psssh.

If these so called 'developers' wanted to buy a dev kit for what is OBVIOUSLY vapourware, then Oculus would have sold thousands of kits to developers by now, which clearly hasn't happened.

Post by **budda** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 1:53 am

Hi,

Its seems very clear to me the Oculus Rift needs to have a killer application to get it over the line until the new commercial version is released and the new purpose built games are made for it.

The easiest approach is to port over existing games but with some improvements which suit the Rift and virtual reality. A no brainer really.

Just look at what Carmack did with Doom BFG for example.

This is a low-risk and quick to please approach that consumers can have soon.

If the Rift cannot support the big name mainstream PC games which have already been released, within the next 12 months, then pack it in now.

Thanks.

Post by **LNQ** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 1:57 am

I just got a wild idea. Maybe Iribe is not psychic and just said some round amount of months because they really have no idea when it's going to ship and it wasn't supposed to be an estimation.

I know, I shold remove my tin foil hat.

In all seriousness, the Rift will have support from developers when it releases. It's not going to live or die by the time it takes from devkit to consumer release. If by release there are a lot of or even one great competing VR HMD, all the better, but I find that highly unlikely.

I wouldn't be concerned.

Post by **Leahy** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 2:18 am

I don't think Sony or Microsoft pose that much of a risk because their market would get too easily pissed off if they buy a HMD for a console and can't play EVERY game ever made on it. As someone mentioned earlier they are talking about millions of people where the Rift is at this point several thousand.

Just look at how frustrated we all are in waiting for our Rift we had hoped to get at Christmas. We're (mostly) all mature adults here and waiting is hard enough for us. Just imagine the angst of a million already frustrated adolescents being released on the internet if Oculus announced a delay. They say "Maybe 24 months," that, to me, means one year, possibly a bit less but probably a bit more. They simply can't say anything less because there is so much uncertainty and they already had people over at Kickstarter putting up a fuss over the delay of the dev kit when that always was a very probable likelihood when you make a 'pledge' not a purchase.

Post by **diwata** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 2:34 am

2EyeGuy wrote:When the consumer version ships mostly depends upon when the dev-kits are out, since they are waiting for games to be ready and for feedback.

Just wanted to mention 2EyeGuy's post again. They are waiting for both content and feedback on hardware and software of the rift. The Oculus guys have mentioned it several times in interviews that the dev kit still has lots to work on and they're releasing it to make the problem detection and coming up with solutions faster by essentially having a lot of people work on it.

They're going to get feedback and suggestions, make changes, get feedback again, etc. Then there's the screen that they want with specs not in existence. Development for that might take a while.

It's all going to be nice and awesome for maybe a couple of months after the dev kit gets released but people are essentially going in to look for problems. Once the novelty wears off, I wouldn't be surprised to find threads and threads of problems in the forum. They could be easy or difficult to fix. And they want to release a good VR product for commercial release since if it fails, it might take a long while to rise back again.

As others mentioned, it's not set in stone when the commercial version is released. I remember one where they said they really don't have the time set and the interviewer pushed by saying "next year?" I can't remember which interview though because I've watched so many.

Post by **norgoth** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 2:48 am

Leahy wrote:I don't think Sony or Microsoft pose that much of a risk because their market would get too easily pissed off if they buy a HMD for a console and can't play EVERY game ever made on it. As someone mentioned earlier they are talking about millions of people where the Rift is at this point several thousand.

Just look at how frustrated we all are in waiting for our Rift we had hoped to get at Christmas. We're (mostly) all mature adults here and waiting is hard enough for us. Just imagine the angst of a million already frustrated adolescents being released on the internet if Oculus announced a delay. They say "Maybe 24 months," that, to me, means one year, possibly a bit less but probably a bit more. They simply can't say anything less because there is so much uncertainty and they already had people over at Kickstarter putting up a fuss over the delay of the dev kit when that always was a very probable likelihood when you make a 'pledge' not a purchase.

Right , i m a 32 years old gamer and i m im in the same frustration than when im waited for my first chrismas super nes. this "24 month sentences " could decide me to buy the dev kit after the GDC if it is good enough.

Post by **Bretspot** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 3:39 am

cybereality wrote:No inside information here, but I would honestly be surprised if the Oculus Rift did not become like the biggest thing ever.

Heeeeey waitasec! You told us not too get too excited only like a week ago... Now it's the best thing ever? :>

Post by **twofoe** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:19 am

Bretspot wrote:
cybereality wrote:No inside information here, but I would honestly be surprised if the Oculus Rift did not become like the biggest thing ever.
Heeeeey waitasec! You told us not too get too excited only like a week ago... Now it's the best thing ever? :>

The key word is "become." I believe he means the consumer Rift will be a smashing success.

Post by **Paladia** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:36 am

The developer kit can't be released too early, the consumer version can however be released too late. If they wait too long, not only will the major competitors be able to release their versions, but it will also become overhyped, losing out on the momentum and publicity they have gathered. Preannouncements tends to be very negatively handled by the press.

With something as fragile as the state of VR, you under no circumstances want anyone to even think it could be vaporware. I would say that they have to release the consumer version at the very latest by early 2014, else it will have start to have a very negative impact.

Post by **crespo80** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 5:15 am

the title should have been "could consumer rift be shipping too late?"

2013 is out of question of course, and that's very wise, but 2014 will certainly be the year of the rift!

My bet is they'll announce it in Q2 2014 at E3 in June, and make it available in stores in Q4

Post by **GeraldT** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 5:30 am

norgoth wrote:Right , i m a 32 years old gamer and i m im in the same frustration than when im waited for my first chrismas super nes. this "24 month sentences " could decide me to buy the dev kit after the GDC if it is good enough.

Good comparison - I bet the joy of playing the first time with the Rift will rival the first time I played the SuperNES with my brother, which is one of the happiest videogame memories I have.
They are producing 500+/day though - so you might consider this being a the whole idea behind that statement. Given the price and that you are likely to be able to resell it for a fair price you still should get one

Post by **Parallaxis** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 5:31 am

Paladia wrote:The developer kit can't be released too early, the consumer version can however be released too late. If they wait too long, not only will the major competitors be able to release their versions, but it will also become overhyped, losing out on the momentum and publicity they have gathered. Preannouncements tends to be very negatively handled by the press.

With something as fragile as the state of VR, you under no circumstances want anyone to even think it could be vaporware. I would say that they have to release the consumer version at the very latest by early 2014, else it will have start to have a very negative impact.

I agree.

Vaporware is the biggest thread for the Rift. The consumer version doesn't need 150 finished games to be released, it only need one good game or one good proof of concept. Many years ago people spend a fortune on 3DFX cards just to play Quake in 640x480. They will certainly spend $300 on the Rift to play a good game in 1080p on the consumer version.

I can't see any reason the consumer version before can't or shouldn't be released in or before Q2 2014. To hold it back on purpose would be a very unwise strategy. When it's OK, get it out there and start working on Rift 2. Then there is a chance someone would actually start working on a real AAA Rift title. No AAA developer is going to do that before the first consumer version has proven that people wan't to use it.

Post by **GeraldT** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 5:42 am

LNQ wrote:I just got a wild idea. Maybe Iribe is not psychic and just said some round amount of months because they really have no idea when it's going to ship and it wasn't supposed to be an estimation.

My guess is that this is the most likely estimation

... I don't see how he could know yet. They don't even know how well the dev Rift will work out and what problems they might encounter. How could they already have a schedule of the consumer version. They are focusing on R&D right now, lets see when and what they will announce this year and what other gadgets they might be in store for us. Also lets wait what route handy displays take - I already have seen possible candidates for a 1080p Rift, but I have no idea how fast those are or where they are priced. Availability of the right display is one of the factors that will influence the release date and they will have to wait until the right display is available cheap enough.

Post by **ftarnogol** » Sat Mar 02, 2013 6:13 am

Parallaxis wrote:
Paladia wrote:The developer kit can't be released too early, the consumer version can however be released too late. If they wait too long, not only will the major competitors be able to release their versions, but it will also become overhyped, losing out on the momentum and publicity they have gathered. Preannouncements tends to be very negatively handled by the press.

With something as fragile as the state of VR, you under no circumstances want anyone to even think it could be vaporware. I would say that they have to release the consumer version at the very latest by early 2014, else it will have start to have a very negative impact.
I agree.

Vaporware is the biggest thread for the Rift. The consumer version doesn't need 150 finished games to be released, it only need one good game or one good proof of concept. Many years ago people spend a fortune on 3DFX cards just to play Quake in 640x480. They will certainly spend $300 on the Rift to play a good game in 1080p on the consumer version.

I can't see any reason the consumer version before can't or shouldn't be released in or before Q2 2014. To hold it back on purpose would be a very unwise strategy. When it's OK, get it out there and start working on Rift 2. Then there is a chance someone would actually start working on a real AAA Rift title. No AAA developer is going to do that before the first consumer version has proven that people wan't to use it.

I bought a 386 to play Comanche and Wing Commander 2... and I sold my ps3 and bought a PC 3 months ago for the Rift. So yes, $300 for just one game is still a good deal to me